I’ve been asked about this a few times today, so here’s the standard reply, which is a straight-up party-line Cuban-American family reply:

Fidel’s retirement doesn’t really change anything, today. It might, if Raoul actually creates programs to change various economic or even political practices. But Raoul’s track record is not such that one anticipates big change.

On the other hand, maybe the family is really getting ready to step aside, and if so, who knows?

Here in the US, it can be tricky to talk about this stuff in our families, precisely because it evokes such strong emotions. Personally, I surely hope the US embargo is lifted shortly, as it has clearly not resulted in meaningful political or economic adjustments to U.S. or Cuban-exile demands. Likewise, I surely hope that the various on-island cultural, political, and economic pretzels Cubans and others have bent themselves into can be unbent with lissome Carribbean grace and good sense.